Oil Prices Could Rise to $100

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Futures extended gains after weekly government data showed USA crude stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels.

Oil rallied above $69/bbl after a surprise drop in US inventories added to signs the market is in balance before a key OPEC meeting.

Yields on USA two-year Treasuries stood at levels last visited in 2008 at 2.43 per cent and 10-year German yields went above 0.55 per cent for the first time in nearly a month.

West Texas Intermediate rose about 1% to $69.56 at session highs around 7 a.m. ET.

Futures in NY rose 2.9 percent on Wednesday.

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Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled at $73.48 a barrel, up $1.90, or 2.7 percent.

In the US, total inventories of crude and refined products, excluding strategic petroleum reserves, fell by 10.6 MMbbl last week to the lowest level since March 2015, according to Energy Information Administration data.

"It's a bullish report with the across-the-board drawdowns in everything", John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital, told CNBC.

“We continue to see extremely strong compliance” by OPEC nations to self-imposed supply limits, said Nick Holmes, an analyst at Tortoise in Leawood, Kansas, which manages $16 billion in energy-related assets.

US unrefined creation has bounced by a quarter since mid-2016, to a record 10.54 million barrels for every day (bpd).

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Crude futures were already higher ahead of the release after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 1-million-barrels drop on Tuesday afternoon.

Further supporting oil prices is an expectation that the United States will re-introduce sanctions against Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, which could result in further supply reductions from the Middle East.

To be sure, OPEC and Saudi Arabia have no official price target and say the objective of the production cut is to balance supply and demand, and reduce the inventory glut. Saudi Arabia ran budget deficits that were unthinkable before 2014, and its breakeven budget price is said to be upwards of $80 oil.

The higher oil prices would help the cartel and allies to patch up their budgets that have been suffering from the low oil prices for three years now.

While the current effort is approaching its original target of reducing the reserves held by oil importers to their five-year average, reports coming out of Riyadh indicate that Saudi Arabia would be happy to continue with the present squeeze on production. Global markets for equities, currencies and metals have all been whipsawed by the uncertainty over what President Donald Trump's next geopolitical move would be.

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